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Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?

COW Blogs : walter biscardi's Blog : Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
So by now it’s a known fact that the FCPUG Supermeet on April 12 in Las Vegas has been abruptly taken over by Apple. Yes, it says “special presenter” on the Supermeet Website but it’s a known fact now that it will be Apple showing off the new Final Cut Pro and most likely the entire new Studio suite.

Now we know that Apple has already broken with policy by allowing Larry Jordan to publicly make a few comments about a Final Cut Pro event in Cupertino a few months ago. This was a remarkable change and I definitely took that as a signal that Apple would be making an appearance at NAB. Allowing Larry to speak publicly was certainly a marketing ploy designed to drum up some interest in the product for the show. After all, we’ve been waiting two years to see something, anything, from Apple and of course Larry called the new FCP “jaw dropping.” I expected Apple to do one of its patented Sunday afternoon events so we’d all be talking about Final Cut Pro during the show and be able to pester Adobe and Avid about their responses to what Apple was going to offer. Or perhaps Apple would be the final presentation at the FCPUG SuperMeet. But to suddenly demand essentially a total takeover of the event? Nope, even I didn’t see that one coming.

Regardless of whether you applaud this move or not (I’m in the “or not” category) let’s take a look at what this means for Apple and Final Cut Pro. In the parlance of Las Vegas, Apple has gone “All In” for this one event. There is no Apple booth on the show floor. There is no Sunday Apple Marketing event. There is no ANYTHING from Apple other than a complete takeover of one of the largest paid gatherings of video editors at NAB. In other words, just one shot in front of an audience of the very people who will make or break the product and presentation.

This isn’t an iPhone, iPod, iPad, iAnything launch where the general public ooooohs and aaaaaahs and the latest slick Apple offering. Extensive press coverage of Steve Jobs giving one of his patented presentations including the “there’s one more thing” line dropping that one thing we can’t live without.

No, this is a product launch that directly affects the bottom line of those of us in Post Production make a living. Apple has been quietly working for two years to supposedly re-invent Final Cut Pro. They’ve now gone all-in to give us one look, one presentation in front of a crowd of post production professionals to make or break that two years of work.

So what does Apple now have to deliver? Quite simply, everything..

Forget the interface which seems to take up so much of the discussion, “will it be iMovie Pro or not?” Who cares? If it’s an intuitive interface and makes the application more efficient that’s fine. If it’s a crappy interface designed more for the iMasses and not a professional video editor, well then…….

I’m looking for the changes under the hood. Just a few of the things I’m looking for:

Media Management: No more files mysteriously going offline that I have to reconnect when I open a project. No more files just going off into the ether.

Offline / Online Workflow: We do documentaries with 200 to 500 hours of raw materials, would be nice not to have bring it all in as ProRes until the very end and do it in a very easy, efficient manner.

Format Integration: Native Format integration of H.264, MXF and others across ALL the applications. Does no good if Final Cut Pro can edit with something you can’t send into Color natively.

Project Settings: All settings remain with the Project, not global to the application. An editor should not have to constantly re-set Format, Capture Scratch, etc… each time they open a project.

TimeCode output: Timecode output via SDI like pretty much every other NLE out there.

On Screen Text Tool: Type and control your text on the Canvas, not in the Viewer.

Full Integration of the Suite: Adobe CS5 is the model, Final Cut Studio has to meet or exceed that level of integration across all apps.

There’s a lot more I could mention, but those are some of the top things I’m looking for and each of these items has to do with efficiency. At the end of the day, that’s what editors are looking for. The most efficient workflow to get my job done so I can spend more time on the creative and less time on the technical. Right now Adobe quite honestly has the lead on that one.

You know a while back I said this was basically going to be the make or break year for me with Final Cut Pro. Apple has made that decision pretty easy for me now.

Do we see the best Pro Non-Linear Application ever or do we get a watered down, single screen Prosumer level editing tool geared towards the iMasses and not Professional Post Production? Is Apple so confident they have the best product on the market that it’s worth taking over the entire SuperMeet? Or have they made something that’s really more prosumer targeted that won’t stand up to following demos by Avid / Premiere and will take 2 hours to convince us it’s the best product?

Two years in the making.

One Presentation.

All-In.

Apple’s Biggest Win ever at NAB or one of the most Epic Fails of all time?

Tune in Tuesday, April 12th to find out.


Posted by: walter biscardi on Apr 7, 2011 at 9:19:02 amComments (54)

Comments

Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Craig Shields
This is an interesting thread. After years of reading the FCP Cow and seeing dudes get beat-down for rumors and speculation. Now I'm seeing some of the ones who said it doing the same. Personally, I like rumors and speculation but was always told on this forum that it was pointless. "Those who know can't say".. blah, blah blah.. Well since it is happening, I would like to be the voice of reason and make the observation that the people on the lounge video who were assuming the worse had a serious axe to grind. One was grinding his axe with one hand while sipping a beer with the other. These guys know as much about the new program as we do. It may be a fail but I'll do what you guys have said for years... wait and see for myself.

Re: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Neil Hurwitz
Now we are in 100% agreement.
it's gonna be an interesting NAB

Neil Hurwitz
Re: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Neil Hurwitz
I agree with everything Walter has said here, Except
"In other words, just one shot in front of an audience of the very people who will make or break the product and presentation."
I think this is a very presumptuous statement.
Just who anointed the "supermeet" ticket holders
as the make or break crowd?
Are they influential? You bet.
Make or Breakers, I doubt it.
All this huffing and puffing reminds me
of a blowfish out of water.

There are tens of thousands of other editors out there
who just follow Apple and simply would not switch to the other evil "A's", no matter how bad Apple shoots themselves. Apple would really, really, have to trample on their own feet and then eat them for this to change. However stranger things have happened

IMHO
There are two things that apple could do to create a real stir
1. Thunderbolt in Macpro's
2. A relatively cheap Thunderbolt Raid array

Neil Hurwitz
@Neil Hurwitz
by walter biscardi
I don't mean to say that those of us attending are the "end-all" when it comes to the product line, BUT there will be a virtual who's who of industry leaders and users that have a great influence on the editing community at large.

I know when I read reviews by Scott Simmons, Shane Ross and others that I trust their opinion on, that has a GREAT influence on what I use and how I use it.

It's definitely a "tough crowd" to present to. Flashy presentations don't impress us, show us what the thing actually does and how it does it, then we'll make our decision.

If what is presented does not really fly to the professional video realm, we're going to know it pretty darn quickly based on the reaction to those in the room.

On the other hand, if it's a complete home run by Apple, you're going to know that too.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by David Jahns
While maybe not make or break, Supermeet-ers first impressions will make a huge impact on the professional industry. My company is sitting on upgrade plans for months to see what's announced, and to formulate a big picture strategy for the next year or so.

If the new FCP doesn't work us, we'll go back to all-in for Avid - done! (At least, future upgrades - we won't trash existing working FCP 7 workstations, of course.) But other variables matter, too - will this be released only for Lion, etc.? Will Final Cut Server be part of this mix? etc...

My hunch is..

It will be a radical departure in everything from low level Media Architecture to a brand new interface, and squarely aimed at "where the puck will be", and it will terrify many people at first.

But remember how panicked everyone was going from OS 9 to OS 10, and then from G5 to Intel? I think they did a remarkably good job of making it a smooth transition via Rosetta, etc...

And every version of FCP has always been compatible with the current and previous operating systems - so I would expect it work with Snow Leopard-QT but with extended features in the Lion/iOS AV foundation (or whatever the hell Philip Hodgetts is talking about!)

I also expect a "Legacy Mode" or something similar to enable the old features to still work on the new systems, if not natively, through some other mechanism. Maybe an upgrade will allow you to keep the old version on your system?

For example: If they drop tape output in the new version, maybe you have to send a project via XML to FCP 7 for tape layoff. A little clunky, sure, but I doubt Apple will completely cut the legs out from under the broadcast pros without at least putting a pillow underneath us...

ALSO - didn't Apple just apply (or receive?) a patent for a new tape output technology? Hard to see why they'd put energy into that if they are dropping tape I/O.

And if iCutPro is what they have in store, would they even want to present at the Supermeet? Doubtful...

All that being said... if they do jump straight to the iCutPro and drop all of the tools the broadcast industry needs, it will certainly kill NOT Apple as a company, or even FCP as a app. With a user base with 1.5 mil registered users - how many of them ever use an EDL or an offline/online workflow? 10% tops? If we do have iCutPro in the future -my biggest fear is Avid regaining monopoly power in the pro space - Lightworks for Mac anyone?

See you guys Tuesday night!

David Jahns
Joint Editorial
Portland, OR
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by James Mulryan
Walter:
Kind of surprised you did not mention reducing render times on your wish list.. I think rendering has to be Apple's customer's biggest source of frustration. Pretty sure Avid and now Premier (with the Mercury solution) has Apple beat on this one.

James Mulryan
Sunset Park Media, LLC
Santa Monica, CA
info@jamesmulryan.com
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Terence Curren
[James Mulryan] "Kind of surprised you did not mention reducing render times on your wish list."


Background rendering in the new FCP. Does that help? Does it make up for the other areas that will be shortchanged?

Terence Curren
http://www.alphadogs.tv
http://www.digitalservicestation.com
Burbank,Ca
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Paul Shields
I can see them killing Final Cut Express and unbundling the suite. They then offer FCP as a download on the OSX App store around $299 and you purchase the other components as additional products. Probably still offer the full suite as a physical purchase on this release - in the same way Avid have two purchase models.

I also agree that tape i/o will go for the twin reasons that it currently sucks and that's not where the puck is headed :)

Interesting to see the growing momentum behind CS5 as people see how a studio "suite" should work.
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Neil Sadwelkar
Background render. Doesn't iMovie sort of do this already?
In any case Pinnacle Liquid (now Avid Liquid) could also do this way back in maybe 2003 or so.

Log & Capture. BM Media Express is a pretty good alternative to capture and layoff to tape. One plus being that in BM ME you can see timecode on your system monitor while layoff, which FCP ETT cannot do.

Uncompressed. With thunderbolt in MacBook Pros and definitely in forthcoming in iMacs and MacPros, it will be possible to work uncompressed even up to 2k and beyond. Uncompressed video makes far less use of CPU resources than ProRes so it may be possible to use an iMac even, for multiple 2k or HD uncompressed streams with Thunderbolt and fast 6G SATA/SAS storage.

QuickTime. Wouldn't it be nice if FCP's native capture format is decoupled from QuickTime so that most of the media management hassles emerging from Quicktime's inability of resolving a 'true' time code for each frame. And, of course, Gamma issues.

I wonder what all this means to other third party Mac software recently unveiled like Smoke for Mac and Resolve for Mac.

Lots of questions. Waiting for Wednesday morning 7.30 am (that's Supermeet time in my time zone).

-----------------------------------
Neil Sadwelkar
neilsadwelkar.blogspot.com
twitter: fcpguru
FCP Editor, Edit systems consultant
Mumbai India
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by John Heagy
[Neil Sadwelkar] "Quicktime's inability of resolving a 'true' time code for each frame. And, of course, Gamma issues."

Quicktime is capable of recording a time code number for every frame and supports jumps in time code. We do it with our Building 4 Media system. However FCP will not accept broken TC movies as it ultimately relies on frame count.

Do any other NLEs support broken TC in a single media file?

John Heagy
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by walter biscardi
[James Mulryan] "Kind of surprised you did not mention reducing render times on your wish list.. I think rendering has to be Apple's customer's biggest source of frustration. Pretty sure Avid and now Premier (with the Mercury solution) has Apple beat on this one."

I did say there were other things..... The Mercury Engine from Adobe completely kicks FCP's butt. Background rendering, faster rendering, etc... would all be nice.

How about more realtime like we used to have with the Pinnacle CineWave, oh I don't know, four or five years ago? Like realtime chroma key, as in realtime chroma key edit to tape realtime. No rendering period required to lay to tape.

There are other things we could do in REAL realtime years ago with the CineWave that we can't even approach now.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Ben Holmes
There is no way on earth a newly coded version of FCP will not include extensive GPU support for better previewing, faster renders and backgrounding etc. No way. We have to accept that as a minimum for a new app.

I have to say a lot of the editor's lounge discussion annoyed me in relation to FCP. It seemed like those that didn't know had an axe to grind one way or the other, but the one person who DID know was remarkably positive. Apple's decision to preview this product shows their confidence in what they've done. Had they previewed it and then NOT shown it at NAB, it could be dismissed as an attempt to keep interest up with users whilst every other company made tried to convert them at NAB. Now it looks like careful hype building.

One thing Apple never gets wrong - marketing. If they've taken the unprecedented step of previewing the product, and allowing 'word' to be released about it, they are allowing expectation to build knowing the product is going to stand up to the hype. They are extremely careful to manage expectations with public announcements - it's years since they've been wrong-footed, or misjudged this.

Showing it for the first time at Supermeet is perfect. Firstly, everyone will be speculating at NAB for a couple of days - no one will talk about anything else - and it will drive competitors nuts. Then - without having to actually attend NAB (let's not forget they swore off trade shows at the peak of FCP's success) they get a big audience of pros handed to them. Where else could they do it?

I have no doubt that this will be a landmark release. Will it please everyone? No. but I expect there will be new users. Do I expect it to alienate current users? No. Why on earth would they do that? Aperture was 'iphoto-fied', but all the pro features were still there. It's just easier to use for everyone. My guess if that for pros the changes will take a wet afternoon to get used to - the new features a bit longer.

I'm going out on a limb to say I think this will be the most significant release in NLE software in a decade. Either that - or they should sack the marketing department. It's going to be a late Tuesday night in the UK for me...

Edit Out Ltd
----------------------------
FCP Editor/Trainer/System Consultant
EVS/VT Supervisor for live broadcast
RED camera transfer/post
Independent Director/Producer

http://www.blackmagic-design.com/casestudies/detail.asp?case=therydercup
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Terence Curren
[Ben Holmes] "I'm going out on a limb to say I think this will be the most significant release in NLE software in a decade. Either that - or they should sack the marketing department."


I'm going out on a limb and saying it will be the latter.

Terence Curren
http://www.alphadogs.tv
http://www.digitalservicestation.com
Burbank,Ca
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Ben Holmes
Let's meet here on Wedsnesday and duke it out then. I've learnt not to bet against Apple...

Edit Out Ltd
----------------------------
FCP Editor/Trainer/System Consultant
EVS/VT Supervisor for live broadcast
RED camera transfer/post
Independent Director/Producer

http://www.blackmagic-design.com/casestudies/detail.asp?case=therydercup
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Craig Seeman
I agree with Ben when it comes to Apple and marketing.

Apple could have gone for a press event under their typical controlled environment. That they chose to speak to a group of people, many of whom work for or are decision makers at post facilities, speaks to who the marketing team wants to target. Even more valuable since many in this group may well have been considering Avid, interesting in seeing Resolve and other competing products. They believe this is a facility level product and they want to target those that may be looking to "stray."

@Ben Holmes
by Tom Daigon
Since imovie is referenced as a model for some of the possible enhancements for the new FCP I took a day to play with it. I just hope to god that its gui WAS NOT a source of inspiration for the new FCP.

Tom Daigon
Avid DS / FCP / After Effects Editor
http://www.hdshotsandcuts.com
Re: @Ben Holmes
by Ben Holmes
I've only heard the 'iMovie' comments from people who haven't seen it - and those comments, as far as I can tell, are just based on two years of grumbling (also guff) that Apple are abandoning Pro Apps based on the fact that they sell a lot of iPhones. Give me a break. Is this the same Apple that just bought Thunderbolt to market first? Who the hell cares about Thunderbolt except for pro users? Apple just made EVERY computer they make into a platform for FCP - all will connect to IO devices and fast storage.

Here's the truth - the time is now exactly right for FCP to leap forward for professionals. Multicore GPUs and CPUs have matured, Thunderbolt and SAS/SSD drives are upon us and affordable, and tapeless camera technology is climbing in resolution and usability. Maybe Apple are last to jump, but they'll be the ones to jump furthest. Again.

And finally - if you don't think Jobs wants to eat Adobe's lunch, you don't read much tech news...

Edit Out Ltd
----------------------------
FCP Editor/Trainer/System Consultant
EVS/VT Supervisor for live broadcast
RED camera transfer/post
Independent Director/Producer

http://www.blackmagic-design.com/casestudies/detail.asp?case=therydercup
Re: @Ben Holmes
by Tom Daigon
Well Ben, NOW you've heard an imovie comment from someone who has played with it enough to get a good feel for it (you DID read my posting, right?). As stated, the GUI is laughable as a Pro App. which I hope has little to do with FCP8.

Tom Daigon
Avid DS / FCP / After Effects Editor
http://www.hdshotsandcuts.com
Re: @Ben Holmes
by David Jahns
I think he means that the "iMovie Pro" comments are from people who were not at the sneak preview a month ago in Cupertino.

David Jahns
Joint Editorial
Portland, OR
Re: @Ben Holmes
by Ben Holmes
Umm - well I meant that comments that FCP would turn into iMovie were from people who haven't seen the new FCP. I appreciate you may have played with iMovie. I've seen it too. And yes - I did read your post.

I recall a wildly speculative comment from a french rumour site suggesting the new version would be a bit more iMovie-ish. I watched a bunch of entirely uninformed comments in the video Walter linked to which seemed to be a reaction to this rumour. I admit it had me worried for a while, in the absence of anything else to do.

If you think someone like Mark Radounis, who runs a post house, would describe something iMovie-pro-ish as ;awesome', or think Apple would release something like that at NAB, you're plain wrong.

Think a little more.

Edit Out Ltd
----------------------------
FCP Editor/Trainer/System Consultant
EVS/VT Supervisor for live broadcast
RED camera transfer/post
Independent Director/Producer

http://www.blackmagic-design.com/casestudies/detail.asp?case=therydercup
Re: @Ben Holmes
by Terence Curren
[Ben Holmes] "I watched a bunch of entirely uninformed comments in the video Walter linked to which seemed to be a reaction to this rumour."

Wow. I guess I am one of the "uninformed" people you are referring to. Apparently you either didn't listen closely, or you completely misunderstood me. I am sorry I was unable to communicate my reasoning effectively to you.

Last year after NAB I formed an opinion of where Apple would go with "FCP." I based this on a lot of data points, and what appears to be Apple's overall game plan. I felt that Apple would probably use the iMovie on IOS code for a new "FCP" as opposed to trying to rewrite code that was created on a PC in the last century.

You can take an H.264 movie and get amazing performance with it on iMovie in your iPhone. Take that same movie and drop it in FCP on the beefiest CPU you have and watch the world come to a screaming halt. Newer better code. That is what we are talking about.

Much easier to take that code and add features from FCP that most users would want.

Second, I proffered that it wouldn't have tape I/O. Why would Apple waste any resources including that when the future is tapeless? Look at the history of Steve jobs. "Floppy discs will be dead some day, take them out now" "BluRay will not be the future, don't support it" etc. Obvious to me that Jobs would now think tape I/O was of ANY importance.

Now, the ProApps division and the iMovie folks are under the same master at this point as I understand it. Mr. iMovie himself, Randy Ubilos. So, why would it make sense to have to maintain two separate code bases, two separate teams of coders, etc. It would make more sense to have the same code base, and just turn some features off for the free iMovie version.

An Apple product purchaser gets iMovie. Plays with it. Then some day, he says "Gee, I wish I could do more with it." Great, go to the app store and for 99.00 upgrade to iMovie Pro, or FCP X, iCut Pro, or whatever the hell the marketing team decides to call it.

So that is my theory, and I reserve the right to be wrong, but the more I hear, the more I believe I am correct. But please, don't assume I'm "uninformed" just because I wasn't at the sneak preview.

PS: Has anyone here wondered why Apple would have a well publicized "Sneak Preview" of a product. Something they have never done before that I can recall? Think this through and you will get a sense of why Tuesday has the chance to be an epic fail for Apple marketing.

Terence Curren
http://www.alphadogs.tv
http://www.digitalservicestation.com
Burbank,Ca
Re: @Ben Holmes
by David Jahns
Hi Terrence - love yours and Philip's show!

Of course, we'll all know soon enough... but it's fun to speculate for the next few days, right? I don't think anyone meant to insult you, and personally, I appreciate some healthy skepticism, but we're just reading the tea leaves differently on this one... Here's what I see:

• a weak release in 2009, then nothing for 2 years, now...
• Thunderbolt
• new Edit to Tape patent
• private showing to pro editors, and finally
• huge public show in front of the toughest crowd around?

These are not the moves of a company abandoning the pro market.

I agree it will be new code from the ground up (which they started on before 2009 - hence the weak release), and probably shared core framework with iOS and iMovie, but it's well worth it for them to write additional code for Tape I/O, etc...

See you Tuesday!

David Jahns
Joint Editorial
Portland, OR
Re: @Ben Holmes
by walter biscardi
[David Jahns] "These are not the moves of a company abandoning the pro market."

For my last speculation before Tuesday, I believe they are going to move more towards a Prosumer market in order to sell many MANY more copies of the software. The Pro market is quite small compared to the overall Apple market out there. If they bring Final Cut Pro down a bit towards prosumer and especially if it operates more like iMovie AND they drop the price even further, that would open up even more hobbyists to dabble into the app. Opens up a HUGE market if that happens.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: @Ben Holmes
by Terence Curren
[walter biscardi] "If they bring Final Cut Pro down a bit towards prosumer and especially if it operates more like iMovie AND they drop the price even further, that would open up even more hobbyists to dabble into the app. Opens up a HUGE market if that happens."

I believe you are on the correct path Walter. Though I don't think using the term "Prosumer" is fair. That isn't how Steve Jobs views the future.

Most folks are framing these "speculation" threads around how it is going to impact them now. That is going to cause some real backlash for Apple. If you frame the question, how is this going to impact me in 3 years, then the "awesome" description that early viewers were allowed to use makes more sense.

Even though I'm "uninformed", I am still aware. When Mark described Apple as going where the puck will be, he said reams. If you watched the video, you noticed I pressed him about whether they would adopt it for Bunim Murray right now. He skillfully skirted the question, but that answered it for me.

Basically, on Tuesday night people are going to se an awesome presentation of a very powerful editing system. Will it work for many of us now? No. But you can stay on FCP 7 or go to Avid or Adobe if you really need that now. But just like the floppy disk, Mr. Jobs is betting you won't need it for long.

Finally, I keep hearing folks say this would be abandoning the "professionals." But, what makes a pro? Getting paid for the job. So, you shoot with your iPhone, you edit on your iPad, you upload to iTunes, someone pays to download and view it on their iPod. You are now a professional. And there is no Studio or network involved. (And Apple makes a piece of your transaction besides selling you all the tools for producer and consumer)

I know there will be some upset folks on Wednesday morning. But as Walter indicates, a few grumpy "pro" editors don't matter compared to a market potential of everyone on the planet.

Terence Curren
http://www.alphadogs.tv
http://www.digitalservicestation.com
Burbank,Ca
Prestige vs cash
by John Heagy
I see two competing desires that may drive Steve Jobs.

I think he likes the idea that FCP is the current "top dog" in many network shows and more and more films. Buying Final Touch and including it into FCPS at no addition cost supports this, as does the newest ProRes codecs and Arri's adoption of them. There is a new ProRes hardware encoder seemingly every month. KiPro Mini, Cinedeck, Pipeline, Ninja, EVS, and more to follow at NAB I'm sure. I had to dodge a flying pig after I read Telestream will ENCODE ProRes in it's Windows enterprise apps. None of this caters to the prosumer.

The other desire is making money and selling more FCP seats to prosumers at the inevitable expense of pros. Casual and prosumers have FCP Express and iMovie, there's no reason to bring FCP down into a category that Apple has covered.

I don't think Jobs wants to "cash in" prestige for more cash. The amount of work and resources apparently put into the new FCP was clearly not the best use of resources as far as return on investment goes. Apple could have made more by killing FCP and dedicating those engineers to the iPhone/iPad cash cow and duel to the death with Google. All this points to a "pet project", for lack of a better word, where desire trumps the bottom line.

John Heagy
Re: Prestige vs cash
by Terence Curren
You are operating under the same assumption many in this debate are which is that Steve Jobs believes there is a future for broadcasters and studios.

In the future that is NetFlix, Google/YouTube, iTunes, etc providing the content users watch, What difference does it make if those folks who used to work for studios once edited with FCP?

Terence Curren
http://www.alphadogs.tv
http://www.digitalservicestation.com
Burbank,Ca
+1
Re: Prestige vs cash
by John Heagy
[Terence Curren] "You are operating under the same assumption many in this debate are which is that Steve Jobs believes there is a future for broadcasters and studios."

Not necessarily... replace "network shows and films" with "high budget productions" and the prestige is still there regardless of how people view the final product. These productions will continue to have high budgets and complex production techniques.

Wether Avatar 2 is shown on a 50ft screen in a 3D theater or streamed from Netfix to your iPad, it will still take professional tools to produce.

John Heagy
Re: Prestige vs cash
by Craig Seeman
I think John is on the right path in understanding Apple's marketing and business model.

Apple is not moving away from pros at all. What they are doing is expanding their base. Keep in mind Apple's motive is using software to sell hardware. Apple is not going to abandon the multi license multi MacPro facility. There's no economic motive to do it.

Apple is moving towards an end to end human lifecycle solution. I do think they want the kids using iMovie to be comfortable moving up the chain into professional editing. That does NOT mean dumbing down the interface, and by the way ease of use is not dumbing down if advanced features remain. It does mean that someone like Randy Ubellos may have the insight to take people from point A to point B though. It means working the FCP interface will be come second nature to people resulting in more brand loyalty (not going to Adobe or Avid, etc) as one moves from iPad to MacPro over the years.

Avid actually had some hope of doing this years back when they briefly had that AvidFreeDV or whatever it was called. Learn the interface and moving up is easier. Avid didn't/doesn't have the long range thinking Apple does. Or maybe it's that Apple has the ecosystem which now has control over aspects of end use (viewer) delivery, content creation tools, expanding codec.

I think people look at the trees too much and not the forest. Actually Apple wants both and they're going for both the saplings as well as the towering Oak.

ProRes and Thunderbolt are not kids' toys and I'd imagine once the Thunderbolt products come out, that's going to way VERY HEAVILY in facility purchasing decisions. Of course that will force Avid and Adobe to do whatever to support it . . . but again it puts Apple in the lead. I can't help but think we're going to see some very specific Thunderbolt features . . . to encourage a lot of new MacPro (and MacBook Pro) purchases. It'll be Apple and FCP features causing the push to new Mac purchases, NOT Avid or Adobe . . . and that's what Apple's about . . . and that's the Pro market if you're talking about budgets.

Re: @Ben Holmes
by Ben Holmes
Honestly Terrance - yes, you are one of the uninformed, as am I. You have no idea what Apple is planning. You have NO actually indication on the direction of FCP. Mark Radounis does. I'll take his quiet confidence over your negativity as it's based in fact. I'd be happy to admit, I shared many of your concerns last year - and voiced them. I'd started to give up, but was always reminded that it's just a gut feeling, not based on anything solid.

I'll be happy to continue with this discussion on Wednesday - but iMovie proves nothing as a GUI - nor does the rise in iPod sales, or Randy Ubilos. Has Apple's pro audio software Logic become less capable? No. Is it easier to use? Yes. Is it cheaper than it used to be? Yes. Does that mean the same will happen to FCP? Who knows? I hope so. ALL software should get cheaper and easier to use. It doesn't make it less capable.

Are NLE's due a shakeup? For sure. The wold, formats and delivery are all changing - faster than anyone can keep up. By next year, ALL my broadcast work will be tapeless. In 5 years time, everything will be, except archive. Probably sooner.

Are Apple abandoning pro users? Where's the proof? No new Mac Pros? No new interfaces? Selling less computers? No.

When Apple unveil 'places' and 'faces' for FCP, the AVID camp will snicker. I'll just tick it off as a feature I'll never use, and look at the ones I do. My guess - they'll all still be there, just quicker and easier. But that's it - a guess.

Edit Out Ltd
----------------------------
FCP Editor/Trainer/System Consultant
EVS/VT Supervisor for live broadcast
RED camera transfer/post
Independent Director/Producer

http://www.blackmagic-design.com/casestudies/detail.asp?case=therydercup
@Ben Holmes
by Tom Daigon
OK. Weighing in with my last observation on the debate of the century relates to this quote..

"If you think someone like Mark Radounis, who runs a post house, would describe something iMovie-pro-ish as ;awesome', or think Apple would release something like that at NAB, you're plain wrong."

Mr. Raudonis used the only Apple sanctioned quote (from Larry Jordan) that would not get him prosecuted. If you look at his facial cues during the delivery it is apparent that this word was spoken with humor and knowledge of his legal limitations. Which in effect nullifies the significance.
The more telling dialog was when he was asked if Bunim / Murray would utilize the new software. His lack of affirmation says it all to me.
See you all at the Super Meet!

Tom Daigon
Avid DS / FCP / After Effects Editor
http://www.hdshotsandcuts.com
Re: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Tom Daigon
Walter, thank you so much for the link to the Editors Lounge piece. After watching it, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas takes on a new meaning that describes my anticipation of the Supermeet. Yikes!

Tom Daigon
Avid DS / FCP / After Effects Editor
http://www.hdshotsandcuts.com
Re: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Ernest Ratliff
I hope some of the editors lounge speculation turns out to be wrong, no tape i/o would require quite a bit of redoing for our workflow.
@Ernest Ratliff
by Tom Daigon
I still have clients that bring in "archival footage" they need in in presentations on beta tape. No support for AJA I/O would be my signal to make the leap to Adobe, since I have loved what they have done with CS5 (primarily After Effects but inclusive of what I see with Premiere).

Tom Daigon
Avid DS / FCP / After Effects Editor
http://www.hdshotsandcuts.com
@Tom Daigon
by walter biscardi
No tape I/O would be end of Final Cut Pro for us for sure. Would be a rather odd decision quite honestly but would point more to Prosumer use than Professional use.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: @Tom Daigon
by Craig Seeman
I vaguely remember this was something Philip Hodgetts thought was a next step. I can't see Apple making a move like losing tape support because facilities that buy lots of licenses (and lots of MacPros) are a profitable market. Dropping it doesn't gain them any sales and loses a chunk of the facility market with their volume license and computer sales.

Re: @Tom Daigon
by Victor Perez
Could it quite possibly be that the Log & Capture function might move to another application to free up space in Final Cut for more editing power and better input capabilities from future tapeless media? (Say that 10 times) 90 percent of my capture from tape is done in one large block of time. Should I really care if the Digitize tool is always in FCP. It would be nice if it stays there, but it might not be necessary to have Log & Capture there all the time.
ex. I might create temp titles using the title tool, but when it comes down to creating the real titles I use Motion. I can also export directly from FCP for quick client reviews, but I use Compressor when I need to export versions and masters that do not go to tape. Hopefully some of this makes sense. As the link above shows, telling a story still remains a linear concept regardless how many flash-backs, flash-forwards or flash-sideways you have. Editing one might just evolve once again.

Victor
http://www.editvictor.com
http://www.hbhm.tv
http://www.itvisus.com
Re: @Tom Daigon
by Craig Seeman
It may well be that Log and Capture might be moved to a separate app if it in any way frees up the FCS workstation to do other things. If you think about it, having a Log and Capture workstation may well be more efficient then taking down an edit bay for hours of tape input.

There are also devices like Telestream Pipeline which bring in video on Ethernet, transcode to ProRes and allow you to start editing the source WHILE it's still inputing as it creates an open ended container in real time. I think people need to rethink the potential models of tape capture and efficient use of an edit bay. Apple's not dump. They're not going to toss away the multiple license facility market.

Re: @Tom Daigon
by John Pale
To be fair, i think they were suggesting outsourcing the tape capture software to the card vendors... Aja and Blackmagic, etc. They each already provide apps that do this. With a bit of refinement, they could easily replace Log and Captue...maybe even do a better job.
Re: @Tom Daigon
by Terence Curren
[John Pale] "i think they were suggesting outsourcing the tape capture software to the card vendors"


That is true.

Part 3 of the Editors' Lounge video is up and part 4 will be up in a few hours.

http://vimeo.com/channels/editorslounge

Terence Curren
http://www.alphadogs.tv
http://www.digitalservicestation.com
Burbank,Ca
Re: @Tom Daigon
by Terence Curren
[John Pale] "i think they were suggesting outsourcing the tape capture software to the card vendors"


That is true.

Part 3 of the Editors' Lounge video is up and part 4 will be up in a few hours.

Terence Curren
http://www.alphadogs.tv
http://www.digitalservicestation.com
Burbank,Ca
Re: @Tom Daigon
by walter biscardi
As long as any replacement can very easily read the FCP bins we have from our hundreds of projects, I'm fine with that. AJA makes a very nice tape capture utility (or they did, I think it disappeared with their latest drivers.)

Really don't care if L&C goes out into a separate "mini-app" or handled by a 3rd party, so long as it's included in something and can work with projects already logged through many generations of FCP.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: @Tom Daigon
by Mark Suszko
I heard from a spy that all they did was slap an Apple logo on Premiere:-) (ducks, runs)


This speculation is fun but pointles; I say save your energy for the massive kibbitzing that will happen on Tuesday and ever after. We'll all know for sure on Tuesday, then we can start rating and berating in earnest.
+1
Re: @Tom Daigon
by walter biscardi
[Mark Suszko] "
This speculation is fun but pointles; I say save your energy for the massive kibbitzing that will happen on Tuesday and ever after. We'll all know for sure on Tuesday, then we can start rating and berating in earnest."


Already planning a bunch of us to sit together at the event.... Should be a lot of fun. Good or bad, either way, all we have to is sit back and enjoy the show.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: @Tom Daigon
by Jason Jenkins
[Mark Suszko] "I heard from a spy that all they did was slap an Apple logo on Premiere:-) (ducks, runs)"

That is funny. Frankly, I wouldn't care if that were true. Premiere is a nice app with a bad rap. All it needs is an Apple logo and everyone would start using it.

Jason Jenkins
Flowmotion Media
Video production... with style!
Re: @Tom Daigon
by John Heagy
I would welcome a capture plug in architecture that would allow Aja, and the like, to talk directly to the card. The reason current I/O is so lousy is it's dumbed down to work for all via QT. If it was up to the manufacturer then it could be optimized for the card.

It does need to work within FCP so timeline marks can determine what's output.

John Heagy
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Chris Tompkins
I would think Apple is leaning towards PRO and will bring it.
I hope so.
Please keep us non-NAB-Attending folks up to date as best you can.

Thanks Walter!

Chris Tompkins
Video Atlanta LLC
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by walter biscardi
While we wait for Tuesday, you all should be watching the 40 minute video presentation from the Editors Lounge. I'm going to watch the entire thing tonight. Have glanced through it, some good, some bad from folks who have seen it or have inside knowledge of it.

http://fcp.co/final-cut-pro/news/307-pre-nab-buzz-on-the-future-of-fcp-from...

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Garrett Evans
Somewhere a live blog or feed is going to be available for those of us who had to edit instead of attend the event. Can anyone give a pointer to live/realtime coverage?

Thanks,

Garrett

ps...Apple, go pro, go pro, please go pro!

MacPro OSX 10.6.6 2x2.26 QCIX 10GB 1066MHz DDR3 FCP7.0.3/FCS3
FCSvr1.5 Xsan2.2 DotHill 24TB QlogicSANbox 8GB ATTO 8GB
@Garrett Evans
by walter biscardi
If we can get twitter working in the event hall, I know three of us who will be sitting together tweeting away. Depends on the signal and whether or not we're getting any sort of wi-fi in there.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Richard Herd
Yeah, Pro.

But what about price point? And I can tell you right now. I will not buy the first release. 8.0.1 is the one I want. Also an apple pro breakout box would be a nifty product.
@Richard Herd
by walter biscardi
Some folks posed the question of whether Apple will break up the suite back into individual apps. Intriguing question for sure.

Would be funny after all these years of making us buy the suite to then break it back up again.....

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Re: @Richard Herd
by Richard Sanchez
But then again, with Avid now making ScriptSync a separate lisence it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Richard Sanchez
North Hollywood, CA

"We are the facilitators of our own creative evolution." - Bill Hicks
Re: @Richard Herd
by Richard Herd
Also, I'm hoping to use the ASC's CDL.
Re: Blog: Apple's "All In" Move: Big Win or Epic Fail?
by Chris Borjis
Agree with you 100%.

I'd like to add obvious support for red .r3d native editing, bicubic resizing in fcp (so nesting HD in SD sequences looks great like it does in other apps) as well as compressor and Blu-Ray options in DVD Studio pro.



Professional Video Editor, Producer, Creative Director, Director since 1990.

Credits include multiple Emmys, Tellys, Aurora and CableAce Awards.

Creative Director for Georgia-Pacific and GP Studios, Atlanta. Former Owner / Operator of Biscardi Creative Media. The show you knew us best for was "Good Eats" on the Food Network. I developed the HD Post workflow and we also created all the animations for the series.

Favorite pastime is cooking with pizza on the grill one of my specialties. Each Christmas Eve we serve the Feast of the Seven Fishes, a traditional Italian seafood meal with approx. 30 items on the menu.

If I wasn't in video production I would either own a restaurant or a movie theater.

 




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